Aside from the fintech/broad market contraction over the past 6 months, payments companies should be guaranteed medium term bets.
Why?
Simple:
They have no conscience and would push their own grandmas off a cliff if it meant they made quarter.
If you’ve at all followed this periodical, you’ll see payment fee increase after fee increase, rounding error after rounding error (always in the processor’s favor, mind you), and misrepresented interchange category after misrepresented interchange category.
The industry generally lacks morals, scruples, and any other redeeming characteristic; a louse is more noble.
Over the long term?
Payments goes to zero.
But you have to measure it on the order of decades.
In the nearer term, you have no business taking a financial interest against companies that are run by the sorts that brag about the “robustness” of their business when it involves tripling their fees on customers that are literally fighting for their (business) lives in the face of the most serious pandemic in a century.
You just can’t bet against people who lie, cheat, and steal.
Imagine, if you will, a game of American football.
The defending champs are up by 14 points, at home, and the away team is on their own 1-yard line with 10 seconds left on the clock.
A victory seems pretty improbable, right?
They’d have to march 99 yards, score a touchdown, complete an onside kick, recover the ball, and score again.
All without the clock going to zero.
Oh, but we forgot to mention one thing…
The away team is The Payment Bros.
So what do they do?
As soon as they snap the ball, every single team member pulls out a handgun and blasts the home team in the face.
Literally murders the competition.
They run the ball to the end zone in 9 seconds.
A kickoff resets play.
The Payment Bros successfully complete an onside kick while the home team quenches the turf with their blood, the clock goes to zero, but The Payment Bros have already run it in for another 6 points.
With no time left, The Payments Bros score a two-point conversion and win.
The crowd, shellshocked, stands there with mouths agape.
Not a sound can be heard above the soft whisper of a crisp autumn breeze.
But the silence only lasts so long.
The Payment Bros count their ammunition and begin indiscriminately firing on spectators.
Hey, there’s money in those spectators’ wallets, y’all.
As they celebratorily circle the globe in their spacecraft, high above the losers that grieve the even more loserly deceased (who were simply unfortunate enough to stand in the way of a fat Super Bowl payout), The Payment Bros recount their tales of bravery, victory, and sheer fucking bro-tivity.
Yea, don’t bet against that.
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